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Light at the End of the Tunnel: COVID May Be Over Sooner Than You Think According to Stanford Biophysics Professor and Nobel Prize Laureate

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Light at the End of the Tunnel: COVID May Be Over Sooner Than You Think According to Stanford Biophysics Professor and Nobel Prize Laureate

Professor Michael Levitt is a Stanford Professor of Biophysics, Cambridge Ph.D. as well as a 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate. He has a very encouraging prediction regarding the coronavirus outbreak.

He is confident that the U.S. will basically see the end of the COVID-19 panic in about 4 more weeks.

US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.

Previously, Dr. Levitt tweeted,

Thanks so much. Total population and totally annual natural deaths very similar to EuroMOMO area. Right now there are overall 414 reported deaths/million in US. If same as Europe, US about 80% complete. Certainly hope this is true and US saturates at no more than 170,000 deaths.

Dr. Levitt began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.

Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. In his view, the fact that new cases were being identified at a slower rate was more telling than the number of new cases itself. It was an early sign that the trajectory of the outbreak had shifted.

Sources:
LA Times

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